2025 presidential elections

Poland is a unified country. Administratively, that is. Because when it comes to the stance on the most important policies regarding every aspect of the nation – it is anything but. It was very clearly shown by the second round of the Presidential elections that was held on 1 June 2025. With the record breaking turnout of 71,63% the results were pretty much 50:50. The winner, Karol Nawrocki got 50.89% of the votes, leaving his opponent Rafał Trzaskowski taking back premature celebrations with the result of 49.11%. That makes the difference of 369 591 votes – the difference of Brno, if it was unanimous. 

This is the picture of a deeply divided country – literally and figuratively – as we can see on the map below:

Source: https://www.wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2025/pl/2/wynik/pl?initscroll=211.1999969482422

You can see the partitions

West and East are not agreeing with each other on anything. Could it be because of the events that took place 230 years ago? The answer is never so simple. However, the picture of Poland with the line in the middle, representing Partitions between Habsburg monarchy, the Kingdom of Prussia, and the Russian Empire, is still alive and used as a meme after every election held in the country.

Partitions were very complex historical events with equally complex causes, course and results but to put things simply – West gained and East lost – at least economically. All parts of the dissected country were put under occupation and Poles suffered terribly while the occupiers tried to erase the nation entirely, not only from the world map. Poland arose 123 years later to stay. Yet, to shake the consequences of the partitions proved to be a difficult task.

West of Poland, under the Prussian and Austrian occupation, got more developed, more educated and richer. East of Poland, under the Russian occupation, fell behind. It is visible on the maps analyzing every aspect of development. As an example, the map below from the year 2016 shows the number of the houses without the inside bathroom:

Source: Central Statistical Office

The unofficial and quite simplified distinction on Poland A and Poland B (guess which is which) is widely accepted and everybody in Poland knows what it means. Industrialized Prussian part, the south with all the coal and beautiful cities of former Austro-Hungary and agricultural Russian part – not invested in but pillaged and exploited. It is visible in every aspect of life – debt and unemployment rate, development of the railway network or the number of children born out of wedlock. And as far as memes go, we can laugh about seeing the partitions on the weather map:

“You can see the partitions.”

But there is no denying that liberal west and conservative, right leaning east is a fact and instead of reconciliation and leveling the differences, Poland is more divided than ever after 1989.

Disappointment, endorsement,“real” problems and the abroad

The current global geopolitical situation is difficult and tricky. We have been observing military conflicts and tensions, skyrocketing prices of real estate, rising costs of living, social issues like reproductive rights being restricted; all this on the planet that is effectively boiling. And seemingly, we have no back up plan for anything.

Euro-sceptics are on the rise because the European Union is also deeply divided. It seems that these days the delegates cannot agree on anything and subsequently cannot pass policies effectively. All the benefits of belonging to the European Union are overshadowed by all the hurdles mentioned above and somehow people or governments come to conclusions that perhaps it would be easier if we just look after ourselves. After all, why should we be involved in others’ struggles? It is a very shortsighted perspective, yet it is not very difficult to be the devil’s advocate and see why it is appealing. 

Poles may be tired of the European Union trying to intervene in the agricultural policies or the neighbour’s war but mostly, they are tired of the ineffective government. Parliamentary elections brought a big change but very little of the promises were fulfilled. Rafał Trzaskowski was supported by the governing party and people disappointed in its policy voted for his opponent – officially running independently but heavily backed up by the opposition. Voters took “revenge”. Was it wise? It was certainly a loud and clear message but taking into consideration presidential prerogatives in Poland, it will not do much to change most of the policies. It can, however, obstruct the decision making process even more, as the president can veto laws presented by the parliament. The veto then can be rejected by a qualified majority of 3/5 votes in the presence of at least half of the statutory number of Deputies of the lower chamber of the Parliament (Sejm). The current coalition does not have such a majority.

What we have is the playing field for more division. The only surprise is the extremely minimal difference between the candidates. All else is a well-known scenario. Pandering to voters based on social divisions, marking some problems as “real” and some as “made up”, ignoring young voters and those abroad.

Speaking of those abroad. Turnout outside of Polish borders was even higher – 84,26%. Yet, the west and east “swapped”. Conservative candidate Nawrocki won in the USA and Canada while expats in the east backed up liberal Trzaskowski. The discussion of voting rights of immigrants and expats is also rising during every election and many go into extremes. However, the picture of a Pole from Chicago who has never seen Poland and only heard about it from their grandmas is not a very true representation of the diaspora anymore. The thing that doesn’t change though, is the fact that it is mostly ignored, unless the fight for the seat is a close one.

Source: https://www.wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2025/pl/2/wynik/pow/149900

Polarization in the face of rising facism

There is one more important actor in this election – the winner of the third place of round I. Sławomir Mentzen, 38 year old tax advisor and one of the leaders of the far-right Confederation Liberty and Independence. If anything is to be named a real surprise in the whole process, it is the fact that such a polarizing and extreme candidate won 14,81% of votes. 

The inter-connected globalised world we live in has complicated issues. There are no simple solutions to most of them, yet we still would like to hear some. Usually nationalists and fascists have them – we need to mind only our own business and there is one particular group that is our enemy and the source of all evil. The trick is now to not fall for it.

With the growing unrest and uncertainty, Poland can count on one thing – partitions memes are here to stay.